Pakistan’s economic growth for the fiscal year ending June 30 will be the slowest in more than a decade, beset by the global recession and a manufacturing slump, officials and analysts say. Gross domestic product (GDP) will slow to 2.37 percent, Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee recently estimated, revising downwards the year’s target growth of 2.5 percent.

But a senior finance ministry official warned GDP could be as little as 2.1 percent, saying the committee did not take into account the plummeting fortunes of the manufacturing sector.

“The accounts committee will calculate it again while considering the manufacturing sector’s growth and all other things,” the official told on condition of anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

Either way, it will be the worst recorded GDP growth since financial year 1997-98 when the State Bank of Pakistan put the rate at 1.9 percent.

The bleak economic news comes with the military bogged down in an offensive against the Taliban in the country’s northwest.

Financial analysts said this year’s major disappointment was the hefty manufacturing sector, which has shrunk 5.73 percent so far this fiscal year.

“We believe the full-year, revised GDP will look even worse because hopes for industrial sector recovery are bleak due to power cuts and lower domestic demand,” said Muzammil Aslam of JS Research.

“This year’s growth rate would be the lowest since 1998, while the manufacturing sector could achieve a double-digit negative growth,” Aslam said.

The National Accounts Committee said the industrial sector had declined 2.57 percent this fiscal year.

Construction flopped a whopping 10.79 percent, while the finance and insurance sector declined 1.19 percent, said the National Accounts Committee.

Investment income from abroad declined to 65.6 billion rupees (810 million dollars) from 100.05 billion rupees last year, the committee said.

Economists believe Pakistan is struggling from the global economic downturn and stubborn inflation hovering around the 19 percent mark.

“Pakistan’s economy is in deep recession — partly because of the global slowdown and partly for its own economic troubles,” said Rauf Nizamani, an independent economist.